A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed turmoil, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The team have examined the political, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the shortage of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or advocates want to engage with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unification or the status quo. Each authors two pieces that strive for impartiality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and social statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, duties, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," commented the writer. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens report they support unification but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate arguments, he said. "One side will win here and somebody will eventually lose but all factions has possesses something to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster should engage with the discussion, said O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
