Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension caused by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its response: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction
The succession of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the recent timeframe. By day, political struggles are fought: positive announcements are released from multiple capitals. Significant resources is expended on managing specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "resolution".
After-Dark Attacks
As the offensive developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor missile launches from enemy soil, a ability enabled by current data. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been dispatched to engage hostile aerial threats roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by European allies.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: multiple launches targeted at a incoming threat. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, presumably supplied through Western nations. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly transforms into sober acceptance: perhaps the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and another blackout.
Persistent Threats
Soon after, a heavy machine gun engaged a aerial vehicle close by, part of a defensive team – most likely Western-made equipment. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its target.
With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: seven people killed, destruction and infrastructure problems in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's essential dependence on international aid – a dependence that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to substitute in the short term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The 28-point plan from US administration sparked intense emotion, debate and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and international summits.
Every new proposal from Washington unfolds according to the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This cycle will, undoubtedly, persist.
Political Considerations
It is tempting to accuse certain parties of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership functions according to a principle well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The White House presumes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to relinquish the land that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from thinking that the status quo will not shift further in its favour in the months ahead.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their motivation to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing lives and land but averting a entire defensive failure until circumstances change in its advantage.
Current Realities
Objectively, there are no genuine requirements for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: personal goals to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not shift toward domestic problems. And although their objective will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These two forces are influencing discussions.
Summary and Prospects
It took a mere seven days to kill the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.
While new initiatives based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist negotiation assaults from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on continued Western support.
